Muqtada al-Sadr has tried a number of different tactics to achieve his goal of removing all US troops from Iraq by the end of the year. He’s tried civil disobedience. He’s shown a sample of the unrest that would result. And now, he’s trying to lay down a welcome mat for the Americans, as long as they use it to walk out the door:
The anti-American cleric Moktada al-Sadr called on his followers on Saturday to cease their attacks on United States military forces in Iraq, saying that he did not want the Americans to have an excuse to remain in the country, according to a statement posted on a Web site of his political party.
But if the American troops do not leave by the end of the year, the attacks should resume, the statement said [...]
In his statement, Mr. Sadr said, “I am concerned about the complete independence of Iraq and the withdrawal of the occupying forces from our holy lands.” He added, “And if the withdrawal is not completed and Iraq remains unstable, the military operations will resume in a new and stronger form.”
This is the calculation that the US has refused to make in Iraq. We always hear about the consequences of leaving – heck, there’s a convenient NYT article to that effect today, about the “second thoughts” a handpicked sample of Iraqis have over withdrawal. But what about the consequences of staying? You’re talking about a potential collapse of the government, as the Sadrists withdraw their support for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki; mass popular unrest, with Sadr’s loyalists taking up positions in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square; and a resumption of targeting US forces.
Sadr even pledged to secure the roads for US troops as they left Iraq.
Maybe the military is banking on internal divisions among Sadrist forces, who they believe will not respond to his wishes. The statement from military spokesman Colonel Barry Johnson reflects that: “We shall soon see whether the Promised Day Brigade and others affiliated with al-Sadr’s organization continue to conduct attacks against U.S. forces and the Iraqi government, or if these are just words without the deeds to back them up.” But this is the one unifying goal that brings together every element of Sadr’s coalition: the removal of occupying forces from Iraq. And yes, trainers count. That sleight-of-hand isn’t going to fly with the Sadrists. And of course, a tiny force of 3,000-5,000, as has been discussed, will just be sitting ducks.
Perhaps this can be finessed – maybe if the trainers are stationed in Kuwait, or something. But the consequences of extending that troop presence are not being taken seriously.
